Antonio Madera, responsible for sovereign ratings and financial institutions at Axesor Rating, has been awarded the first prize among analysts operating in Spain in four of the six categories valued at this year's 2021 Analyst Forecast Awards by the economic analysis firm Focus Economics.
Axesor Rating & Antonio Madera have obtained the first positions in the sections of: general macroeconomic indicators, GDP, interest rate and fiscal balance for Spain.
“It is an honour to receive this award that recognizes the work that the Axesor Rating team has been doing in recent years. Especially at a time as complex as the one we are going through after the outbreak of the pandemic, which has forced us to adapt predictive models to a situation not known before and for which history-based econometric models are no longer efficient, having lost its predictive power. This new juncture has forced us to relearn, leaving behind what underlies our vision to observe the small nuances that may go unnoticed,” said Antonio Madera, after knowing the news of the award.
It should be recalled that the European rating agency predicted that the Spanish economy would contract by 10.8% in the last year of 2020, as has finally happened. For this year, forecasts point to a growth in 5.6%.
In recent years, Axesor Rating's economic team has implemented new technologies in predictive processes, “we think it would be difficult to predict without first investigating and harnessing the potential of high-frequency data and bigdata techniques for building different economic scenarios,” Explains Madera.
About Analyst Forecast and Focus Economics
The Analyst Forecast Awards recognize the work of the most accurate economic forecasters on the main macroeconomic indicators in 91 countries. To identify the best analysts, the accuracy of the forecasts of 350 institutions over 22 months has been evaluated. Winning institutions include global forecasting firms and the world's most recognized international banks.
”The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards demonstrate the outstanding work of the more than 1,500 world-leading economists on our panel, who, despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, continued to produce and update reliable economic forecasts for a challenging year. Each year, we are pleased to recognize the most accurate forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators and commodities provided by the institutions participating in our Consensus Forecast,” says Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist and Managing Director of FocusEconomics, in a statement to Axesor Rating.